06 Feb Blue Glacier releases report on the Nashville, Tennessee Christmas bombing

Blue Glacier has published its report on the bombing in Nashville, Tennessee that occurred on December 25, 2020. The report includes a discussion on the suspect (Anthony Warner), the bomb’s effects and impacts on the AT&T network hub and beyond, physical vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, threat outlook, and a red team alternate scenario. Roughly 100 sources were used to write the report.  Some of the report’s key judgements:

Terrorism?

(Medium Confidence) Anthony Quinn Warner’s December 25, 2020 bomb attack in Nashville, Tennessee, likely does not qualify as terrorism, as there is currently no publicly known evidence of Warner’s desire to intimidate or coerce a civilian population or government.

Warning Behaviors

(Low Confidence) Starting at least 16 months prior to the attack, Warner likely displayed at least four warning behaviors related to violence risk.

Explosives Effects

(High Confidence) Most of the buildings affected by the explosion, including those deemed unsafe for use and occupancy or unsafe due to glass damage, are within 400 feet of the explosion. Several critical infrastructure facilities—including City Hall, the State Capitol, and courts—are within the shelter-in-place zone for a vehicle laden with explosives. The most distant buildings to suffer damage from the explosion appear to be two high-rises about 1,700 feet, or 0.3 miles, from the detonation.

Casualty Avoidance

Critical Infrastructure Impacts and Implications

(High Confidence) The RV detonated adjacent to an AT&T network hub. The disruptive attack immediately revealed vulnerable dependencies among communications service providers, in addition to vulnerable dependencies other critical infrastructure sectors have on the communications sector. Most disrupted appear to be the emergency services, health and healthcare, and transportation sectors. The attack affected various critical infrastructure sectors in five states.

Physical Vulnerabilities

(High Confidence) Warner’s attack highlights the physical vulnerabilities of some critical infrastructure, especially the communications sector. In the near to mid-future, domestic violent extremists, violent militia extremists, and white racially and ethnically-motivated violent extremists most likely pose the highest threat to critical infrastructure, including the communications sector.

For Blue Glacier’s full report, click on the link:

Blue Glacier Nashville Christmas 2020 Bombing Analysis Feb 3, 2021 Final